{"id":13318,"date":"2026-05-27T03:10:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T03:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/2026\/05\/27\/china-plan-produccion-ciruela-seca-2029\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T03:10:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T03:10:59","slug":"chinas-dried-plum-production-plan-for-2029","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/2026\/05\/27\/chinas-dried-plum-production-plan-for-2029\/","title":{"rendered":"Countdown to 2029: China's plan to produce 50,000 tons of dried plums and how South America must pivot"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear producer and exporter:<\/strong> The global plum market is about to experience a tectonic shift. For years, China has been the world's most coveted buyer, absorbing enormous volumes of our production. However, the latest sector report presented by the Chinese delegation at the Congress of the International Prune Association<\/em> (IPA) 2026 left a clear message: The Asian giant no longer wants to be just a customer; it wants to be self-sufficient and, very soon, a strong competitor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

With an official projection of reaching the 50,000 tons of domestic production of dried plums by 2029<\/strong>. Does dependence on South American imports have an expiration date?<\/p>\n

Below, we break down the hard data of this transition and how Chile and Argentina must adjust their trade strategy today to avoid being left out of the market tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n

From star buyer to giant producer: The numbers on the table<\/h2>\n

China's agricultural progress is overwhelming. By 2026, the country will have reached... 62,000 hectares planted<\/strong> plum (mainly in the Xinjiang region). To put this into perspective:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • USA:<\/strong> 15,000 hectares.<\/li>\n
  • Chili:<\/strong> 13,500 hectares.<\/li>\n
  • France:<\/strong> 10,500 hectares.<\/li>\n
  • Argentina:<\/strong> 8,500 hectares.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    If we compare it with Chile, which is the world's largest exporter of dried plums, today its planted area is less than a third of the size of the new Asian giant.<\/p>\n

    The import substitution strategy is already a reality in the fresh produce market. Of the 650,000 tons demanded by its domestic market, a 84.6% is already supplied by local orchards<\/strong>. Now, the Chinese government's objective is to replicate this model in the dry segment, seeking to displace the 80% from its import dependence.<\/p>\n

    Commercial window coverings<\/h3>\n

    China is not only seeking volume, but also control of the calendar. The recent introduction of the extra-early July harvest variety "Huajie No. 1" has a direct objective: to eliminate the commercial window traditionally used by storage fruit from the Southern Hemisphere before the start of the local harvest.<\/p>\n\n

    The direct impact on Chile and Argentina<\/h2>\n

    Currently, China's dried plum deficit is covered by importing 30,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Uzbekistan. If China achieves its production target of 50,000 tons, the competition based on volume could be lost.<\/p>\n

    The Asian delegation was emphatic: the local product dominates the 40-80 RMB\/kg price range (mid and low market), while the imported product holds its own in the premium 100-120 RMB\/kg range. For Latin American exporters, sending small-sized plums in bulk (commodities) to China will be economically unfeasible in the short term.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Furthermore, China plans to explicitly use its Belt and Road Initiative to export its surplus production to Central Asia and the Middle East. This forces South American exporters to secure their contracts in secondary markets now, ahead of the imminent arrival of low-cost Chinese products.<\/p>\n\n

    The escape route: Premium Quality and Added Value<\/h2>\n

    Given this scenario of commercial compression, the only profitable way out is absolute differentiation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    The Chinese consumer is evolving towards a more sophisticated standard. Today there is sustained demand (growing at 10.1% annually) for:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Pitted plum (pitted<\/em>)<\/strong> of large caliber.<\/li>\n
    • Products with organic certifications<\/strong> y no added sugar<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
    • High-value derivatives<\/strong>, such as baby purees and juices for the nutraceutical industry focused on "digestive health".<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The strategic refuge for South America is no longer in selling bulk volume, but in partnering with local brands and guaranteeing a premium quality that Chinese production, still dealing with its massive expansion, cannot easily match.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \u26a0\ufe0f The business has changed:<\/strong> Continuing to focus on volume and medium or small sizes is a risky bet. The South American orchard and industry must decisively shift towards achieving large sizes and dominating the pitting niche.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

      The "blind spots" of the Chinese plan<\/h2>\n

      While the scenario seems daunting, China's roadmap has bottlenecks that represent a huge challenge for them and a window of opportunity for our countries:<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Infrastructure deficiencies:<\/strong> China reports post-harvest losses from 20% to 30% due to a lack of cold chain. Furthermore, scaling up to 50,000 tons of dehydrated product requires a massive investment in industrial ovens, a capacity they currently do not claim to possess.<\/li>\n
      2. Structural water limits:<\/strong> 601% of China's plum production depends on Xinjiang, a desert region. It is questionable how they will sustain irrigation for the nearly 76,666 hectares projected for 2029 without a robust water management plan.<\/li>\n
      3. Data discrepancy:<\/strong> Official Chinese import figures and those reported by Trade Map<\/em> At a global level, they do not exactly match, suggesting that their statistical domain still requires validation.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

        Conclusion: Pivot in time<\/h2>\n

        The countdown to 2029 has already begun. China has ceased to be merely a passive buyer and has become the main producer. Producers and exporters in Chile and Argentina have the next 24 to 36 months to make drastic strategic decisions.<\/p>\n

        The message is unequivocal: Abandon the losing battle for bulk volume and bet everything on superior quality, premium sizes and working directly with the end consumer.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        China projects to produce 50,000 tons of dried plums by 2029. We analyze the impact of this threat on Chile and Argentina and how to pivot to premium quality.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13317,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}