{"id":13320,"date":"2026-05-28T00:15:02","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T00:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/2026\/05\/28\/congreso-ipa-2026-contradiccion-datos-importacion-china\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T00:55:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T00:55:04","slug":"the-end-of-the-bulk-business-the-chinese-oversupply-climate-change-and-the-new-ipa-rules-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/2026\/05\/28\/the-end-of-the-bulk-business-the-chinese-oversupply-climate-change-and-the-new-ipa-rules-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of the bulk business: Chinese oversupply, climate disruption, and the new IPA 2026 rules"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear producer and exporter:<\/strong> The global plum industry faces a historic turning point. The conclusions of the latest Congress of the International Prune Association<\/em> (IPA) 2026, held in Modena, Italy, left one inescapable certainty: The export model based exclusively on bulk volume has an expiration date.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While historical powers struggle with capital flight and extreme climate volatility, the emergence of China as a mega-competitor and new environmental regulatory pressures demand an immediate strategic recalculation for producers in Chile and Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, we analyze the 3 central axes that are redefining the global landscape of dried plums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The players' map: Between crises and disruptions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The congress presented diametrically opposed realities depending on the productive origin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • The climate shock in France:<\/strong> Hit hard by storms and extreme heat waves, its 2025 harvest barely reached 27,000 tons. Its grower base has halved since 2005, with aging orchards (26.2 years on average).<\/li>\n
  • California's resilience:<\/strong> It reported stability with a projected 64,000 tons in 2025. Its strategy against commoditization is clear: they have invested more than USD 3.5 million in nutritional research to sustain price premiums.<\/li>\n
  • The purge in Argentina:<\/strong> This reflects an average decline of 6,971 TP3T per year from its peak in the 2014\/2015 season with 16,639 hectares to the current 2025\/2026 season with approximately 8,500 hectares. The country has confirmed the end of the small-scale survival model, giving way exclusively to "professionalized companies" with advanced irrigation and hail netting.<\/li>\n
  • Chile's hegemony:<\/strong> It reaffirmed its undisputed leadership by exporting 88,897 tons<\/strong> in 2024. However, it faces a 36-month hourglass to move out of small-caliber bulk and pivot towards value-added.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The Chinese tsunami<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    The total disruption came from Asia. China reported 62,000 hectares planted and projects to reach its own production of 50,000 tons of dried plums by 2029<\/strong>. With the new "Huajie No. 1" variety, harvested extra-early in July, they are closing the late marketing window in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, they threaten to flood Central Asia and the Middle East with their low-cost surplus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Carbon Farming: When sustainability pays off<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Europe and the US have shown that carbon capture is no longer just a label Corporate Social Responsibility<\/em>, but a new business unit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The California plum has an exceptionally low carbon footprint (0.46 kg CO2eq per kilo produced), surpassing almonds and walnuts. Through IoT monitoring (Internet of Things<\/em>), Italian consortia demonstrated the feasibility of certifying these credits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With values that can range between USD 80 and USD 300 per ton of CO2<\/strong> in voluntary markets, the carbon farming<\/em> It is presented as the ideal "private subsidy" for Latin American producers to monetize practices such as the use of cover crops<\/em> and the shredding of pruning waste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Corporate restructuring: The IPA 2030 Plan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    \u00ab"We have reached the structural limits of an underfunded, fragmented model run by volunteers."\u00bb<\/em>. This is how Hern\u00e1n Satorre defined it, marking the transition of the IPA towards a corporate model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The new Strategic Plan 2030 requires all producing countries to collaborate financially to boost global demand campaigns. The message is clear: If global supply increases, driven by China and Uzbekistan, and demand does not grow at the same rate, commoditization will destroy the value of the entire category.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Congress's "blind spot": The data war<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The 2026 IPA left a serious unresolved statistical discrepancy that directly affects price projections (FOB<\/em>): while the global analysis of Trade Map<\/em> It places Chinese imports of dried plums at 34,902 tons by 2024, The Chinese delegation stated that it is importing 55,000 tons annually.<\/strong>. This distortion of over 20,000 tons in the world's main buying market is a critical risk factor that South American exporters must monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Renew or disappear:<\/strong> The wood-rot fungus (Phellinus pomaceus<\/em>This is causing losses of up to 431% in orchards that are only 13 years old. Genetic replacement and phytosanitary management are no longer optional.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Conclusion: What to look forward to in the next 12 months<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    For decision-makers in Chile and Argentina, the clock is ticking. The 36-month window is the exact amount of time they have to abandon small, bulk calibers and pivot towards boneless formats and high-value secondary markets (like Italy, which relies on imports for a 77%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For the short term, the 3 key indicators to follow are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. The actual drying capacity in Xinjiang:<\/strong> Do they really have the capacity to process 50,000 tons?<\/li>\n
    2. The price of carbon credits in Europe.<\/strong><\/li>\n
    3. The implementation of the new Executive Secretariat of the IPA 2030 Plan.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Are you preparing your farm to certify carbon credits? Join the discussion in the comments.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Analysis of the IPA Congress 2026. Discover the contradiction in China's import data and how the extra 20,000 tons alter FOB price projections.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,61],"tags":[65,87,88,86,67],"class_list":["post-13320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eventos","category-mercados","tag-ciruelas-deshidratadas","tag-congreso-ipa","tag-inteligencia-comercial","tag-ipa-2026","tag-mercados"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13320"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13326,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13320\/revisions\/13326"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}