{"id":13339,"date":"2025-06-14T02:17:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-14T02:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/?p=13339"},"modified":"2026-06-07T02:18:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T02:18:51","slug":"system-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/2025\/06\/14\/system-test\/","title":{"rendered":"Test system"},"content":{"rendered":"

CHINA \u00b7 MARKETS<\/p>\n

China will produce 50,000 tons of dried plums by 2029: why South America's days in the bulk market are numbered<\/h1>\n
IN 30 SECONDS<\/strong>China is no longer just a buyer. It's aiming for self-sufficiency and competition. Those who continue selling small-sized, bulk fruit will be left behind. The only profitable option: large-sized, pitted, and premium fruit.<\/div>\n
\n
50,000 t<\/div>\n
China's domestic production target for dried plums by 2029<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

From star client to giant producer<\/h2>\n

China already has 62,000 hectares planted<\/strong>, especially in Xinjiang. It's more than 4 times<\/strong> the surface area of Chile, the world's largest exporter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Planted area by country (ha)<\/th>\nWorth<\/th>\nScale<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
China<\/strong><\/td>\n62000<\/td>\n<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA.<\/strong><\/td>\n15000<\/td>\n<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chili<\/strong><\/td>\n13500<\/td>\n<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/strong><\/td>\n10500<\/td>\n<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Argentina<\/strong><\/td>\n8500<\/td>\n<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

When fresh they already cover the 84.6% of its domestic demand<\/strong> with local orchards. Now they are replicating the dry model: they want to displace the 80% from what they currently import.<\/p>\n

The roadmap to 2029<\/h2>\n

Progress is not a promise: it has concrete stages and an aggressive schedule.<\/p>\n

Countdown to 2029<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
2026<\/div>\n
62,000 hectares planted<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
2027<\/div>\n
Extra-early variety<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
2028<\/div>\n
Industrial scale<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
2029<\/div>\n
Goal: 50,000 tons of our own<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

The direct blow to Chile and Argentina<\/h2>\n

China imports today 30,000 tons from Chile<\/strong> y 25,000 tons from Uzbekistan<\/strong>. If it reaches its own 50,000 tons, the battle for volume is lost.<\/p>\n

\n
The line that defines everything<\/div>\n

Chinese products dominate the lower-mid range. Imported products only survive in the premium segment. Shipping small-caliber products in bulk to China will be unfeasible in the short term.<\/p><\/div>\n

Price bands in China (RMB\/kg)<\/div>\n\n\n
\n
Bulk \/ medium-low<\/div>\n
40-80<\/div>\n
It is dominated by local China.<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Premium imported<\/div>\n
100-120<\/div>\n
South American refuge<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n
The South American orchard has 24 to 36 months to pivot to quality.<\/div>\n

The escape route: premium or nothing<\/h2>\n

The Chinese consumer is becoming more sophisticated. Demand is growing. 10% per year<\/strong> in large caliber pitted, organic without added sugar and high value derivatives.<\/p>\n

\n
Where to play and where to leave<\/div>\n
<\/span>Premium large caliber pitted<\/b>Demand +10% annually. Here's the margin.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/span>Secondary markets (Central Asia, Middle East)<\/b>Secure contracts before the Chinese surplus.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/span>Bulk commodity small caliber<\/b>Not viable in the short term. Leave.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Chinese plan has cracks (and that buys you time)<\/h2>\n

All is not lost: the Chinese roadmap has real bottlenecks.<\/p>\n

\n
WHAT TO DO NOW (next 24-36 months)<\/div>\n
    \n
  • I converted the orchard and industry towards large caliber and pitted.<\/li>\n
  • Secure contracts in secondary markets before the Chinese surplus arrives.<\/li>\n
  • Leave the bulk commodity behind: it can't withstand Chinese price competition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    The countdown to 2029 has already begun. Pivoting in time is the difference between leading the premium niche or disappearing from the export map.<\/p>\n

    Do you want the full analysis of the 2026 IPA?<\/strong> Subscribe to Portal Ciruelas and receive each sector report directly in your inbox.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    CHINA \u00b7 MERCADOS China producir\u00e1 50.000 t de ciruela seca para 2029: por qu\u00e9 Sudam\u00e9rica tiene los d\u00edas contados en el granel EN 30 SEGUNDOSChina dej\u00f3 de ser solo comprador. Va por la autosuficiencia y a competir. El que siga vendiendo granel a calibre chico queda afuera. La \u00fanica salida rentable: calibre grande, descarozado y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13339"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13339\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13340,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13339\/revisions\/13340"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/portalciruelas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}