CHINA · MARKETS

China will produce 50,000 tons of dried plums by 2029: why South America's days in the bulk market are numbered

From star client to giant producer

China already has 62,000 hectares planted, especially in Xinjiang. It's more than 4 times the surface area of Chile, the world's largest exporter.

When fresh they already cover the 84.6% of its domestic demand with local orchards. Now they are replicating the dry model: they want to displace the 80% from what they currently import.

The roadmap to 2029

Progress is not a promise: it has concrete stages and an aggressive schedule.

The direct blow to Chile and Argentina

China imports today 30,000 tons from Chile y 25,000 tons from Uzbekistan. If it reaches its own 50,000 tons, the battle for volume is lost.

The escape route: premium or nothing

The Chinese consumer is becoming more sophisticated. Demand is growing. 10% per year in large caliber pitted, organic without added sugar and high value derivatives.

The Chinese plan has cracks (and that buys you time)

All is not lost: the Chinese roadmap has real bottlenecks.

The countdown to 2029 has already begun. Pivoting in time is the difference between leading the premium niche or disappearing from the export map.