The end of the bulk business: Chinese oversupply, climate disruption, and the new IPA 2026 rules

Dear producer and exporter: The global plum industry faces a historic turning point. The conclusions of the latest Congress of the International Prune Association (IPA) 2026, held in Modena, Italy, left one inescapable certainty: The export model based exclusively on bulk volume has an expiration date..

While historical powers struggle with capital flight and extreme climate volatility, the emergence of China as a mega-competitor and new environmental regulatory pressures demand an immediate strategic recalculation for producers in Chile and Argentina.

Next, we analyze the 3 central axes that are redefining the global landscape of dried plums.

1. The players' map: Between crises and disruptions

The congress presented diametrically opposed realities depending on the productive origin:

• The climate shock in France: Hit hard by storms and extreme heat waves, its 2025 harvest barely reached 27,000 tons. Its grower base has halved since 2005, with aging orchards (26.2 years on average).
• California's resilience: It reported stability with a projected 64,000 tons in 2025. Its strategy against commoditization is clear: they have invested more than USD 3.5 million in nutritional research to sustain price premiums.
• The purge in Argentina: This reflects an average decline of 6,971 TP3T per year from its peak in the 2014/2015 season with 16,639 hectares to the current 2025/2026 season with approximately 8,500 hectares. The country has confirmed the end of the small-scale survival model, giving way exclusively to "professionalized companies" with advanced irrigation and hail netting.
• Chile's hegemony: It reaffirmed its undisputed leadership by exporting 88,897 tons in 2024. However, it faces a 36-month hourglass to move out of small-caliber bulk and pivot towards value-added.

The Chinese tsunami

The total disruption came from Asia. China reported 62,000 hectares planted and projects to reach its own production of 50,000 tons of dried plums by 2029. With the new "Huajie No. 1" variety, harvested extra-early in July, they are closing the late marketing window in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, they threaten to flood Central Asia and the Middle East with their low-cost surplus.

2. Carbon Farming: When sustainability pays off

Europe and the US have shown that carbon capture is no longer just a label Corporate Social Responsibility, but a new business unit.

The California plum has an exceptionally low carbon footprint (0.46 kg CO2eq per kilo produced), surpassing almonds and walnuts. Through IoT monitoring (Internet of Things), Italian consortia demonstrated the feasibility of certifying these credits.

With values that can range between USD 80 and USD 300 per ton of CO2 in voluntary markets, the carbon farming It is presented as the ideal "private subsidy" for Latin American producers to monetize practices such as the use of cover crops and the shredding of pruning waste.

3. Corporate restructuring: The IPA 2030 Plan

«"We have reached the structural limits of an underfunded, fragmented model run by volunteers."». This is how Hernán Satorre defined it, marking the transition of the IPA towards a corporate model.

The new Strategic Plan 2030 requires all producing countries to collaborate financially to boost global demand campaigns. The message is clear: If global supply increases, driven by China and Uzbekistan, and demand does not grow at the same rate, commoditization will destroy the value of the entire category.

Congress's "blind spot": The data war

The 2026 IPA left a serious unresolved statistical discrepancy that directly affects price projections (FOB): while the global analysis of Trade Map It places Chinese imports of dried plums at 34,902 tons by 2024, The Chinese delegation stated that it is importing 55,000 tons annually.. This distortion of over 20,000 tons in the world's main buying market is a critical risk factor that South American exporters must monitor.

Renew or disappear: The wood-rot fungus (Phellinus pomaceusThis is causing losses of up to 431% in orchards that are only 13 years old. Genetic replacement and phytosanitary management are no longer optional.

Conclusion: What to look forward to in the next 12 months

For decision-makers in Chile and Argentina, the clock is ticking. The 36-month window is the exact amount of time they have to abandon small, bulk calibers and pivot towards boneless formats and high-value secondary markets (like Italy, which relies on imports for a 77%).

For the short term, the 3 key indicators to follow are:

1. The actual drying capacity in Xinjiang: Do they really have the capacity to process 50,000 tons?
2. The price of carbon credits in Europe.
3. The implementation of the new Executive Secretariat of the IPA 2030 Plan.

Are you preparing your farm to certify carbon credits? Join the discussion in the comments.