The global plum market is adjusting and pressure for larger sizes is growing.

adminJune 15, 20262 Mins read1.2k Views

[CHINA · MARKETS]

The global plum market is adjusting and pressure for larger sizes is growing.

IN 30 SECONDSGlobal plum production is projected to fall by 71.3 tons for the 2025/26 season (191,300 tons), straining the supply of large-sized plums demanded by China. Faced with the structural decline in the US and France, Chile plans to expand its planted area by 211.3 tons by 2030. The Chinese market drives the premium niche, forcing growers to secure early contracts in anticipation of a Chilean harvest with smaller average sizes.

191,300 t

Estimated global production 25/26 (-7% YoY)

The caliber paradox on the Asian chessboard

The Chinese market's appetite for large-sized plums clashes head-on with the current agronomic reality. While the 2025/26 Chilean season projects a 51% increase in production volume, it anticipates an average size of 75 units per pound, exacerbating the shortage of premium product in the global market.

This dynamic worsened after the March rains in the Colchagua Valley (>50 mm), which impacted the drying process after a harvest that started early in February.

The clock to 2029

As the clock ticks towards 2029 — when China is aiming for its own 50,000 tons — the window of profitability for South America is anchored in retaining this premium niche (stoned, without additives), leaving the smaller size (100/120) for the mass-market candy snack chains.

Chilean D'Agen Area (Hectares)	Worth	Scale
Current Planted Area (2026)	13600
Projected Area (2030)	16500

The US and France are losing ground

The long-term structural decline in production in the United States and France underscores Chile's value as a safe haven origin. Today, the South American country accounts for approximately 361% of global plum output. With stable profitability attracting new investment in the O'Higgins, Metropolitan, and Maule regions, Chilean orchards are projected to grow significantly by the end of the decade.

Diversification as an escape

Despite China's pull, Chile's total exports to that destination fell by 41.3 tons in 2025. The volume (87,600 tons exported globally in 2025, +41.3 tons year-over-year) sought profitability and compensated for by surges in demand in Poland, Mexico, and Germany.

Chile's position as the world's most reliable source means that its supply stability will be even more pronounced in the next cycle.

Supply strategy under stress

With a tight global supply and a declining average fruit size, logistics planning will be under immense pressure. Selling volume is no longer enough; profitability will depend on the smart allocation of large-sized fruit to premium retailers who pay a premium for sterilized, healthy fruit from China.

WHAT TO DO NOW

**30 days:** Lock in contracts and secure physical inventories of large gauges (30/40 and 40/50) before shortages overheat FOB prices.
**90 days:** Diversify allocations of smaller sizes (100/120) by exploring fast-growing alternative markets such as Poland, Mexico, and Germany.
**180 days:** Evaluate intra-farm investments (pruning, thinning, nutrition) to force large sizes in the 26/27 harvest, anticipating local production pressure from China towards 2029.

Report prepared by the Portal Ciruela team with data from international sources and market analysis (Original source: Presentation by Erik Zuloaga at the 19th China Nut Food Exhibition, April 2026).

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